Thrown to the lions

The competitiveness of Zimbabwe's forthcoming presidential election - where Robert Mugabe is aiming to win a sixth term - has been boosted by the announcement that Simba Makoni, a former finance minister, plans to run against his old boss. Such is the Western desire to see the back of Mugabe, journalists have already suggested that Makoni represents the autocrat's greatest threat, a claim which, in truth, says more about the paucity of genuine opposition in Zimbabwe than Makoni's chances.

For the record, Makoni is a refreshing candidate who has escaped a close connection with Mugabe and the ZANU-PF leadership with his reputation in tact. He has crossed Mugabe at least twice before, once as head of a state media company and again as finance minister, when he argued for devaluation of the currency. On both occasions he was sacked. Hurting Mugabe at the ballot box would provide Makoni with the sweetest revenge.

His chances depend on his ability to draw out disgruntled allies from within the Zanu-PF. Power in Zimbabwe has become so centralised within the party that an outside challenge is all but impossible. Nevertheless, the failings of the official opposition, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) have become more disappointing as the country's economy has become more desperate. The MDC's leaders, Morgan Tsvangarai and Arthur Mutambara cannot agree on how potential seats should be shared and thus have split the party into rival factions, effectively ruling out any hope of an election victory. Instead, Tsvangarai is to stand against Mugabe for the fourth time, while Mutambara and his supporters are behind Makoni.

Any semblance of an opposition to Mugabe should be encouraged, but this article by Gary Younge explains why it is unwise to expect anything other than more of the same. Having elections and having a democracy are not the same thing. An election is just a mechanism by which representatives are chosen, and the recent polls in Uzbekistan and Russia (and to a lesser extent, Nigeria, Kenya and Kazakhstan) show just show proficient politicians have become in orchestrating their proceedings. In the Zimbabwean election, Makoni must somehow attempt to compete against a heavily controlled state media which will deny him any attempt to criticise his opponent and electoral guidelines which prevent the disillusioned diaspora from voting. Simba he may be, but expect Makoni to be thrown to the lions.