Come quietly, Mr Musharraf

In November I argued it was in Pakistan's best interests for President Pervez Musharraf to survive in the position until the new year to preside over a democratic general election. At the time, Musharraf's commitment to democracy was rightly questioned, he had, after all, introduced martial law, banned opposition media and sacked the supreme court. In the months that followed, and in a manner unique to the helter-skelter world of Pakistani politics, the picture has been completely transformed by the murder of Benazir Bhutto, which has pushed the plight of Musharraf off the front pages.

Somewhat remarkably, given the unrest caused by Bhutto's death, the postponed elections appear to have been both free and fair. The results themselves indicate as much, as the pro-Musharraf party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), were routed by the Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (now under the stewardship of her widower, Asif Zardari) and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) of Musharraf's old friend Nawaz Sharif. Few have praised the president for the execution of the elections, and indeed, more than one wag has questioned whether he still had the authority to rig them, even if he tried. For the president, the worst-case scenario is the possibility of a coalition government of the PPP and PML(N) that, with a two-thirds majority in parliament - could force his impeachment. The most optimistic view is that Zardari will form a much broader coalition with the exclusion of the PML(N), which would keep Musharraf in his job, but even this result will not conceal his unpopularity.

Musharraf's alliance with the USA continues to be questioned when hundreds of Pakistanis die each year in terror attacks. He remains widely blamed for the death of Ms Bhutto, either through his negligent protection, or for masterminding her murder, depending how wild the imagination. He was re-elected by a parliament that has been dramatically overthrown by the electorate and his legitimacy to stand in the first place was only granted once he had replaced the judiciary with his stooges.

The pendulum in Pakistan has swung once again; this time away from the centralised hand of military rule, towards the unpredictability of the country's left-leaning politicians. Whether there is too much bad-blood between Zardari and Sharif for Pakistan to stabilise remains to be seen. What Musharraf should recognise is that he has fulfilled his word and guided Pakistan to the polls, but that he no longer has the influence to lead the country further. He must take the opportunity to walk away quietly, rather than risk the undignified boot of impeachment.