After a week of violence, there is some hope for Pakistan. President Pervez Musharraf's decision to storm Lal Madjid, or the Red Mosque, in Islamabad, following a seven-day siege, was a defiant step against armed extremism and radical Islam.
There are a number of unknown factors which could change the way in which Musharraf's actions are interpreted: the number of deaths (both hostage and militant), the apparent failings of the state to supervise the mosque's activities and the response from the allies of chief cleric Abdul Rashid Ghazi. The early signs have been promising, with only isolated demonstrations in support of the militia. Certainly, there have been no scenes to compare with the mass protests of Pakistan's lawyers on hearing of Musharraf's mysterious suspension of the country's chief justice earlier this year. It is a far surer indication of a state's health to have middle-class professionals complaining peacefully against the organisation of infrastructure than religious extremists to threatening indiscriminate violence.
Musharraf's position is uneviable. He is keen to appeal to the West as a moderate against radical Islam and is aware that the longer the chaos in the country persists, the faster foreign patience will wear thin with his regime. He also faces additional difficulties as a self-appointed army general rather than the head of an democratically elected government. However, the consequences of a complete crackdown on terror are unknown and the risks are enormous. His guiding principle has been to avoid as much bloodshed as possible. The events this week have made this position untenable.
The siege followed a number of vigilante incidents by so-called morality squads linked to the mosque where prostitutes, brothels and music and video shops were harassed. The kidnap of a group of Chinese masseuses brought international condemnation. Thus the invasion of the mosque is not evidence of a new crackdown on militancy, but of a hand being forced. In the end, Musharraf had little choice.
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